Gasoline (RBOB) futures: the price behind the pump
The chart on this page tracks RBOB gasoline futures, the benchmark that wholesale buyers and refiners use to price motor fuel in the United States. RBOB stands for reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending, the petroleum component that gets mixed with ethanol to make the finished gasoline sold at filling stations. The futures contract, traded on the CME's NYMEX since 2006, is not the exact liquid that goes into your tank, but it sits one short step upstream of it. When this number moves, the price you eventually pay at the pump tends to follow, with a delay and a markup on top.
Reading it well means understanding what feeds into it. Gasoline is a refined product, so its price is a stack: the cost of crude oil, plus the cost of turning crude into fuel, plus distribution, marketing and taxes. The futures market captures the first two cleanly and quickly, which is why traders, fleet operators and anyone curious about fuel costs watch it as a leading signal.
What actually drives the price
The single biggest lever is crude oil. Crude is the raw material of gasoline and typically the largest share of the retail price, often around half. Because oil trades on a global market, RBOB reacts to worldwide supply and demand, OPEC output decisions and geopolitics, not just to anything happening domestically. If you want to understand gasoline, start by watching crude oil first.
The second lever is the refining margin, known in the market as the crack spread. This is the gap between the price of crude and the price of the finished product, and it stands in for what it costs a refinery to convert one into the other. The crack spread matters because gasoline can rise even when crude is flat or falling, simply because refining margins have widened. A narrow spread squeezes refiners; a wide one signals tight fuel supply and strong demand.
Layered on top are several recurring forces. The summer driving season lifts demand from roughly Memorial Day through Labor Day, and summer-grade gasoline is more expensive to make because it must have a lower Reid vapor pressure to cut evaporation in heat. That switchover is why RBOB futures often start climbing around March, well before drivers hit the road. Refinery outages from Gulf Coast hurricanes, winter storms or unplanned maintenance can pull supply offline fast, and even the risk of a shutdown can lift futures sharply. Finally, weekly EIA inventory reports on gasoline stocks act as a steady drumbeat of supply data that nudges the price up or down.
Taxes and the gap between futures and the pump
One thing the futures chart does not show is tax. In the US, the federal gasoline tax is 18.4 cents per gallon, and state taxes vary enormously, from single digits in some states to well over 70 cents per gallon in California. Combined federal and state taxes average roughly half a dollar per gallon. Taxes are largely fixed, so they don't cause the daily swings, but they explain why the same RBOB price translates into very different pump prices across regions.
The lag is the other key idea. Futures move in real time, but retail prices change slowly because fuel travels through a chain of wholesalers, terminals and stations that bought at earlier prices. As a rule of thumb, a sustained move in RBOB takes days to a couple of weeks to show up at the pump, and stations tend to pass on increases faster than decreases. So a spike on this chart is an early warning, not an instant reflection of what you'll pay tomorrow.
How to read the chart
The live TradingView chart above plots RBOB futures over time, and the technical-analysis summary distils the common signals into a quick read. Switch timeframes to match your question: an intraday view captures the reaction to an inventory report or a refinery headline, while a multi-month view reveals the seasonal shape, often a spring rise into summer and an autumn fade. Each candle shows the open, close, high and low for its period; the body is the open-to-close range and the wicks mark the extremes. A run of higher highs and higher lows points to an uptrend.
For context, compare RBOB against crude on the same screen. When they move together, oil is driving. When gasoline pulls ahead, the crack spread is widening and refining is the story. You can browse every instrument on our all markets page to line up related charts side by side.
Information only. Nothing on this page is investment advice, and market data can be delayed or imperfect. Do your own research before making any financial decision.
Frequently asked questions
What is RBOB gasoline?
RBOB stands for reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending, the petroleum base that is mixed with ethanol to make finished gasoline. RBOB futures, traded on NYMEX, are the main US benchmark for wholesale gasoline prices.
Does the futures price equal the pump price?
No. The futures price is wholesale and excludes distribution, marketing and taxes. The pump price adds those costs on top, so it is always higher and changes more slowly than the chart.
Why do gas prices rise in summer?
Demand climbs during the summer driving season, and summer-grade gasoline costs more to refine because it must have lower vapor pressure. RBOB futures often begin rising in spring ahead of that switch.
What is the crack spread?
The crack spread is the difference between the price of crude oil and the price of refined products like gasoline. It reflects the refining margin and can push gasoline higher even when crude is flat.
How long before a futures move reaches the pump?
Usually a few days to a couple of weeks. Fuel moves through wholesalers and terminals that bought earlier, and stations tend to pass on price increases faster than decreases.
Is any of this investment advice?
No. speedor.net shows market data and charts for information only. Always do your own research and consider professional guidance before making financial decisions.