I-USD/JPY Isheshi Eliphilayo Nokuhlaziywa

I-USD/JPY: idola lase-US lilinganiswe nge-yen yaseJapane

I-USD/JPY ungenye yemibhangqwana yohlobo lwemali eyenziwa kakhulu ohwebo emhlabeni jikelele. Ikutshela ukuthi kudingeka i-yen engaki yaseJapane ukuze uthenge idola elilodwa lase-US. Lapho inombolo ikhuphuka, idola liyaqina maqondana ne-yen; lapho iwa, i-yen iyanqoba. Ishadi eliphila kanye nokuhlaziywa okungenhla kukhombisa lapho lo mbhangqwana ukhona khona manje, kuyilapho lo mhlahlandlela uchaza ukuthi lelo nani lisho ukuthini, yini eliqhubayo, kanye nendlela yokufunda ukunyakaza kwalo ngengqondo ecacile.

Indlela yokufunda inani

Ku-USD/JPY idola liyinhloko yohlobo lwemali kanti i-yen inani lohlobo lwemali. Intengo engu-150.00 isho ukuthi idola elilodwa lase-US lithenga i-yen engu-150. Uma inani likhuphukela ku-152.00, idola selibalulekile kakhudlwana futhi i-yen ibuthaka, ngoba idola ngalinye manje liphethe i-yen eningi kakhudlwana. Uma lehlela ku-148.00, okuphambene kuyiqiniso: i-yen isiqinile. Ngoba umbhangqwana ulinganiswa ngamanani amabili ngemuva kwamachashazi, ukunyakaza kusuka ku-150.00 kuya ku-150.50 kungama-pip angamashumi amahlanu, isinyathelo esibalulekile kule makethe.

Umkhuba olula uyasiza: funda umbhangqwana kusuka kwesobunxele kuya kwesokudla njenge-"amadola nge-yen." Ukukhuphuka kusho ukuthi idola liyanqoba, ukwehla kusho ukuthi i-yen iyanqoba. Osomabhizinisi ngezinye izikhathi bafinyeza umbhangqwana babize ngokuthi "dollar-yen," futhi lapho bethi "iyakhuphuka" basho ukuthi idola liyakhula, hhayi i-yen.

Okuqhubayo okuyinhloko: isikhala samazinga enzalo phakathi kwe-US neJapane

Ngaphezu kwakho konke, i-USD/JPY iqondiswa umehluko phakathi kwamazinga enzalo e-US neJapane. I-US Federal Reserve imisa inqubomgomo yedola, kuyilapho i-Bank of Japan (BoJ) imisa eyayo ye-yen. Iminyaka eminingi iJapane igcine amazinga acishe abe ngamaqanda kuyilapho i-Fed igcina amazinga aphakeme kakhulu, ivula isikhala esibanzi. Imali ivame ukugeleza iye enzuzweni ephakeme kakhudlwana, ngakho isikhala esikhulu sisekela idola futhi sikhuphule i-USD/JPY; isikhala esincipha sivame ukusidonsa phansi.

Yingakho lo mbhangqwana uphendula ngokushesha okukhulu kunoma yini eshintsha amathemba amazinga: imihlangano ye-Fed, idatha yokuqhamuka kwentengo yase-US kanye nemisebenzi, izinqumo ze-BoJ, kanye nokushintsha kwezinzuzo zamabhondi kahulumeni. Ngisho noba i-BoJ isikhuphule amazinga esuka phansi eminyakeni yamuva, isikhala phakathi kwezikhungo zemali ezimele ezimbili sihlale sibanzi, okugcine ubunzima obakhelwe kwi-yen. Amakethe abheka ngeso lokhozi ikakhulukazi uphambili lwamazinga ase-US, ngoba yilapho izindleko zokuxhaswa kwesu elingenzansi zimiswa khona.

I-carry trade nomlando we-yen wokuba isiphephelo

Isikhala samazinga esibanzi sixhasa isu elibizwa ngokuthi yi-yen carry trade. Ngokwenyani, abatshalizimali bahwebolisa i-yen ngezindleko eziphansi kakhulu, bayiguqule ibe amadola, futhi bafake imali ezimpahleni zase-US ezinenzuzo ephezulu, bezuza umehluko. Ngoba i-yen ishibhile ukuhwebolisa futhi inobunengi obukhulu, kade iwuhlobo lwemali oluthandwayo lokuxhasa. Uma nje amakethe ehlala ezolile futhi isikhala silokhu sibanzi, i-carry trade idudulela i-USD/JPY phezulu ngokuthula.

Isivimbo ukuthi ingaphuma ngokushesha. I-yen iphinde iziphathe njengesiphephelo: ngezikhathi zengcindezi, imali ivame ukugeleza ibuyele kuyo. Lapho kufika isishakamiso, abatshalizimali bagijimela ukukhokha imali abayihwebolise ngezindleko eziphansi ngesikhathi esisodwa, okusho ukuthengisa amadola nokuthenga i-yen. Lokho kungathumela i-USD/JPY phansi ngokushesha nangokuphathekayo, ngisho noma kungekho okushintshile ngeJapane ngokwayo. Iningi lamandla e-yen okuqina ngokushesha ngesikhathi sengozi ukuphuma kwesu kunesidingo esisha seJapane. Isifundo kubafundi beshadi ukuthi imikhuba ezolile ekhuphukayo yombhangqwana ingabuya ngokungathambisile.

Ukungenelela kwesikhashana kweJapane

Lapho i-yen ibuthaka kakhulu futhi ngokushesha, i-Ministry of Finance yaseJapane ingangena kule makethe ngokuqondile, ilayele i-BoJ ukuthengisa amadola futhi ithenge i-yen ukuze inciphise ukuwa. Lokhu kungenelela kuncane, ngokuvamile kubikwa kusengaphambili ngezexwayiso ezisemthethweni mayelana nokunyakaza "okweqile" noma "okusepekiyulesheni," futhi kungabangela ukwehla okukhulu kwe-USD/JPY ngamahora ambalwa. Kuvame ukubuthana lapho umbhangqwana usondela emazingeni izikhulu ezizithatha njengezinga elingahlelekile. Ukungenelela kungalimaza umkhuba kodwa akuvamile ukuwubuyisela ngokuphelele, ngoba isikhala sokuqhubayo esiyisisekelo sisekhona.

Indlela yokufunda ishadi elingenhla

Ishadi eliphila lidweba intengo yedola elilodwa nge-yen ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Khiphaza uze ubone umbono weminyaka eminingi ukuze ubone umkhuba obanzi, bese ungena ufunde ukunyakaza kwakamuva. Bheka noma umbhangqwana wenza amazinga aphezulu aphakeme namazinga aphansi aphakeme (amandla edola) noma amazinga aphezulu ephansi namazinga aphansi ephansi (amandla e-yen), nendlela oziphatha ngayo eduze kwezicongo namathafa angaphambilini, avame ukusebenza njengokusekela noma ukuvimbela. Izinombolo ezizindilinga njenge-150 ne-160 zivame ukudonsa ukunaka okwengeziwe, ngenxa yokuthi ngamanye amazinga lapho izingxoxo zokungenelela zishisa khona.

Osomabhizinisi abaningi bafaka phezu koku hamba okuphindaphindwayo ukuze bachaze umkhuba kanye nethuluzi lamandla njenge-MACD ukuze bahlole ukuthi ukunyakaza kunamandla yini ngemuva kwako. Lindela ukuqhuma okukhulu eduze kwokukhishwa kwedatha yase-US, imihlangano ye-Fed ne-BoJ. Ukuze uthole umbono obanzi wendlela lo mbhangqwana ohlala ngayo eceleni kwezinye izinsimbi, bona zonke izimakethe, futhi ngoba amasheya ase-Japane kanye ne-yen zivame ukuhamba ndawonye, kufanele ubheke ne-Nikkei 225.

Lesi sihloko sisenzelwe injongo yolwazi kuphela futhi akusona iseluleko sokutshala imali. Amazinga ezinga lohwebo angahamba ngokushesha kunoma yiluphi uhlangothi, futhi ukusebenza kwangaphambilini akubikezeli imiphumela yesikhathi esizayo.

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