Inani Lamafutha e-Brent Crude Nesheshi

Uwoyela ongahlanziwe i-Brent: isilinganiso sentengo yomhlaba yowoyela, sichaziwe

Uma izindaba zithi "uwoyela ufike enanini eliphakeme elisha," inombolo esemva kwaleso sihloko ivamise ukuba yi-Brent. Uwoyela i-Brent yisilinganiso sikawoyela esisetshenziswa kakhulu emhlabeni, esisetshenziselwa ukubeka intengo cishe kwezingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zawo wonke uwoyela oluhwebeka emazweni ngamazwe. Ishadi eliphilayo elingenhla lilandelela ikhonteraka le-Brent le-front-month yamakusasa ngesikhathi sangempela, futhi isifinyezo sokuhlaziya kobuchwepheshe sinciphisa izinkomba ezivamile ekufundeni okusheshayo. Leli khasi lakhelwe ukulandelela imakethe, hhayi ukubeka izinhweba, ngakho akukho lutho okumele ubhalise kulo.

I-Brent yowoyela ingiyoni ngempela

I-Brent ithathe igama layo endaweni yowoyela i-Brent e-North Sea, eyatholwa yi-Shell ekuqaleni kwawo-1970. Isilinganiso asisathembeli kuleyo ndawo yodwa manje. Namuhla i-"Brent" iyinhlanganisela yezindawo eziningana ze-North Sea, ngokwesiko amasimu i-Brent, i-Forties, i-Oseberg, i-Ekofisk ne-Troll (okubizwa ngokuthi i-BFOE/T basket) avela emanzini aseUK naseNorway, akhiqiza cishe amabhaleli angu-700,000 kuya ku-900,000 nsuku zonke.

Uwoyela ngokwawo ukhaphalisayo futhi mnandi, okusho ukuthi une-density ephansi kanye ne-sulphur ephansi. Lokho kwenza kushibhe futhi kube lula ukuwuhlanza ube yimikhiqizo enenani eliphezulu njenge-petrol ne-diesel, okuyingxenye yesizathu sokuthi abahlanzi babheke intengo yawo. I-Brent ihweba njengekhonteraka lamakusasa e-ICE eLondon, futhi ikhonteraka le-front-month yiyona ehweba kakhulu. Ukuhlangana kwayo kokuhweba okujulile, ukuhanjiswa ngasolwandle, kanye neminyaka eminingi yokusetshenziswa ezivumelwaneni zokuhlinzeka ngokoqobo yiyona nkinga eyenza yaba yisilinganiso sentengo sokwenqamula i-Europe, i-Afrika kanye nengxenye enkulu yeMpumalanga Ephakathi.

Isikhungo esikhanyayo sokombiwa kawoyela olwandle e-North Sea eceleni kweshadi lentengo elikhanyayo ngombala we-cyan negolide phezu kwesizinda esimnyama esi-indigo — I-Brent yaqala njengendawo yowoyela e-North Sea yase yaba isilinganiso esiyinhloko sowoyela emhlabeni.

I-Brent uma iqhathaniswa ne-WTI, kanye nomehluko phakathi kwazo

Esinye isilinganiso ozosizwa ngaso yi-WTI, i-West Texas Intermediate, uhlobo oluyinhloko lwase-US olulethwa e-Cushing, e-Oklahoma. Zombili zikhaphalisayo futhi zimnandi, kodwa zibeka intengo yemikhiqizo ehlukene. I-Brent ibonisa imakethe yomhlaba yolwandle, kanti i-WTI ibonisa imakethe yaseMelika futhi ngokoqobo iseduze nezwe esikhungweni esisenhla. Ungayiqhathanisa ngokusobala kwikhasi lethu le-Woyela olungahlanziwe i-WTI.

Ngoba lezi zinhlobo ezimbili zilandelela izithombe zokuhlinzeka ezihlobene kodwa ezihlukile, abahwebi babheka i-Brent-WTI spread, okungumehluko wentengo ye-Brent ususwa intengo ye-WTI. I-Brent ivamise ukuhweba ngenani elithe xaxa ngaphezu kwe-WTI, ngokuvamile amadola ambalwa ngebhaleli, ngoba ithuthwa ngasolwandle futhi kulula ukuyithumela noma kuphi ngemikhumbi, kanti i-WTI ithwala izindleko zokuhambisa amabhaleli asezweni ukuya ogwini. Umehluko awumile. Ukukhula okukhulu kokukhiqizwa kwe-shale yaseMelika kungagcwalisa i-Cushing futhi kucindezele phansi i-WTI uma kuqhathaniswa ne-Brent, izithiyo emapayipini zingenza okufanayo, futhi ngoba i-Brent iseduze nezindlela zokuhlinzeka ngasolwandle imunca ushukumo lwezombangazwe ngokuqondile. Uma umehluko wandiswa noma waguqulwa, ngokuvamile ukutshela ngokuthize ngokuhlinzeka kwesifunda, ubuhlakani bokuthumela, noma ubungozi obugxiliswe ohlangothini olulodwa lwe-Atlantic.

Yini eshukumisa intengo ye-Brent

Ezingeni elilula, i-Brent iwukuhlinzeka nesidingo semphahla ethunyelwa emhlabeni jikelele, kodwa amandla asemumva alifanele ukuwazi.

Inqubomgomo yokukhiqiza ye-OPEC+. Amalungu e-OPEC akhiqiza cishe ingxenye yesithathu yowoyela womhlaba futhi enze cishe ingxenye yakho konke ukuhweba kukawoyela emhlabeni jikelele. Uma leli qembu nabalingani balo benciphisa izinjongo zokukhiqiza, amanani avame ukukhuphuka; uma ekhulisa amabhaleli, amanani avame ukudamba. Amandla okhiqizo aseleyo, ivolumu okhiqizi bangayifaka ngokushesha emakethe, aqashwe njengophawu lokuthi imakethe iqinile kangakanani.
Isidingo somhlaba wonke. I-Brent ijikelele lomnotho womhlaba. Umsebenzi wezimboni oqinile, ukuhamba, kanye nokuhweba kukhulisa ukusetshenziswa; ukuwohloka komnotho, ukudamba, noma ukwenza izinto ngendlela ehlakaniphile kunciphisa lokho. Isidingo saseChina nesengxenye ebanzi yaseAsia sinesisindo esikhethekile.
Ezombangazwe kanye nokuthutha ngemikhumbi. Ngoba i-Brent ithuthwa ngasolwandle, isabela ngamandla kunoma yini esongela izindlela zokuhlinzeka. Ingcindezi ezindaweni ezincane ezibalulekile njenge-Strait of Hormuz, ethwala isabelo esikhulu sikawoyela othunyelwa ngasolwandle emhlabeni jikelele, noma ukuphazamiseka e-Red Sea kungakhuphula i-Brent ngokukhulisa ubungozi bokuthutha nokucindezela impahla etholakalayo. Izingxabano nokuvinjelwa okuhlanganisa abakhiqizi abakhulu kwengeza inani lobungozi ngokushesha.
Idola laseMelika. Uwoyela uthengiswa ngamadola, ngakho idola eliqinile livamise ukucindezela phansi intengo (uwoyela uba nezindleko eziphakeme kubathengi abasebenzisa ezinye izimali), kanti idola elibuthaka livame ukuyisekela.

La mandla ayahlangana, yingakho uwoyela ungagxuma ngesihloko esisodwa ngaphambi kokuba noma yiliphi izinga lesidingo liqinisekise lolo shukumo. Ungabona ukuthi umi kanjani phakathi kwezinto ezihlobene kwikhasi le-zonke izimakethe.

Uhlaka lwemikhumbi kawoyela ekhanyayo nezindlela zokuthuthela emhlabeni ezidwetshwe ngombala we-cyan phezu kuka-navy omnyama, nomugqa wentengo okhanyayo wegolide — Njengesilinganiso esithuthwa ngasolwandle, i-Brent isabela ngokushesha ezindleleni zokuthutha nasengcupheni yokuhlinzeka.

Ukufunda ishadi kanjani

Ishadi libonisa intengo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ngokuvamile njengama-candlestick. I-candle ngayinye ihlanganisa isiqephu esisodwa sesikhathi, futhi umzimba wayo umaka lapho intengo yavula futhi yavala khona, kanti izicu ezincane zimaka amazinga aphakeme naphansi. Uchungechunge lwama-candle akhiqiza amazinga aphakeme kunaphambili nawo aphansi kunaphambili lubonisa umkhondo ukhuphuka; okuphambene nalokho kubonisa ukwehla; ukunyakaza okucwathayo kusho ukuthi imakethe ayikaqondi. I-moving average inciphisa umugqa ukuze ushukumo lube lula ukusibona, kanti i-support and resistance amazinga lapho abathengi noma abadayisi bengene khona ngokuphindaphindiwe, benza njengoba kuba isicabha nophahla kuze kube yilapho okulodwa luphuka khona. Shintsha isikhathi ukuze kuhambisane nombuzo wakho: ukubuka usuku olulodwa nokubuka iminyaka eminingana yentengo efanayo ye-Brent kutshela izindaba ezihluke kakhulu. Isexwayiso esiqotho esisodwa, izinkomba zichaza lokho osekwenzekile. Aziboni izukwazi, futhi asikho isu elisebenza njalo.

Ulwazi kuphela. Akukho lutho kulesi khasi olulingana neseluleko sotshalomali, futhi imininingwane yemakethe ingabambezeleka noma ingaphelele. Yenza ucwaningo lwakho ngaphambi kokuthatha noma yisiphi isinqumo sezezimali.

Imibuzo evame ukubuzwa

Uwoyela ongahlanziwe i-Brent uyini?

I-Brent isilinganiso sowoyela olukhaphalisayo, olumnandi olwenziwe ngokuhlanganisa izindawo eziningana ze-North Sea. Ihweba njengekhonteraka lamakusasa e-ICE eLondon futhi isetshenziselwa ukubeka intengo cishe kwezingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zowoyela emhlabeni oluhwebeka emazweni ngamazwe.

Umehluko phakathi kwe-Brent ne-WTI uyini?

I-Brent ibonisa imakethe yomhlaba yolwandle futhi ilethwa e-North Sea, kanti i-WTI uhlobo oluyinhloko lwase-US olulethwa esizweni e-Cushing, e-Oklahoma. Zombili zikhaphalisayo futhi zimnandi, kodwa zilandelela izithombe zokuhlinzeka zezifunda ezihlukene.

I-Brent-WTI spread iyini?

Umehluko wentengo ye-Brent ususwa intengo ye-WTI. I-Brent ivamise ukuhweba ngenani elithe xaxa ngoba ithuthwa ngasolwandle futhi kulula ukuyithumela emhlabeni jikelele. Umehluko uyashintsha ngokukhiqizwa kwaseMelika, amandla amapayipi kanye nobungozi bezombangazwe.

Yini eyenza intengo ye-Brent ikhuphuke noma yehle?

Ukuhlinzeka nesidingo, izinqumo zokukhiqiza ze-OPEC+, umsebenzi womnotho womhlaba, ezombangazwe nobungozi bokuthuthwa ngasolwandle, kanye namandla edola laseMelika. Ngoba i-Brent ithuthwa ngasolwandle, isabela ngokushesha ezingozini ezisongela izindlela zokuhlinzeka.

Ingabe ishadi elikulesi khasi liphila?

Ishadi lilandelela amakusasa e-Brent cishe ngesikhathi sangempela ngesikhathi sokuhweba. Uwoyela uhweba cishe isonto lonke, ngekhefu elifushane, ngakho izilinganiso ziyabuyekezwa cishe usuku ngalunye.

Ingabe konke lokhu kuyiseluleko sotshalomali?

Cha. I-speedor.net ibonisa intengo ye-Brent kanye neshadi ngenhloso yolwazi kuphela. Njalo yenza ucwaningo lwakho futhi ucabangele iseluleko sochwepheshe ngaphambi kokuthatha noma yisiphi isinqumo sezezimali.