Uwoyela olungahlanziwe i-WTI: intengo ihamba kanjani futhi kubalulekile ngani
I-West Texas Intermediate, evame ukufinyezwa nje ngokuthi WTI, ingenye yezinombolo ezibhekwa kakhulu emhlabeni wezezimali. Yintengo yebhaleli elilodwa lohlobo oluthile lukawoyela ongahlanziwe waseMelika, futhi umthelela wayo uyagxumeka udlulele entengweni kaphethiloli, i-diesel, amaplastiki, umanyolo, kanye nokuthutha ngemikhumbi. Ishadi eliphilayo elikulesi khasi lilandelela leyontengo ngesikhathi sangempela. Lesi sihloko sichaza ukuthi i-WTI ingiyoni ngempela, yini eyenza inyuke futhi yehle, ukuthi lifundwa kanjani ishadi, nokuthi kungani impahla emboriwe eTexas igcina isibumba imibiko yenani eliphakeme lokuphila (i-inflation) kanye nezabelomali zemindeni emhlabeni wonke jikelele.
Ukuthi i-WTI iyini, futhi yehluke kanjani ku-Brent
I-WTI ngu-woyela okhaphalisayo, omnandi (light, sweet crude) okhiqizwa e-United States futhi ulethwe ngokoqobo e-Cushing, e-Oklahoma, indawo enkulu yokugcina nokuxhumana kwamapayipi. "Okhaphalisayo" kusho ukuthi ugeleza kalula futhi ukhiqiza isabelo esiphakeme sikaphethiloli lapho uhlanziwe; "omnandi" kusho ukuthi une-sulphur encane, ingqikithi engaba ngu-0.24%, okwenza kushibhe ukuwuhlanza ube ngamafutha ahlanzekile. Ikusasa lezimakethe le-WTI lihwebeka e-New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futhi liyisilinganiso esiyinhloko sentengo kawoyela waseNyakatho Melika.
Umlingani wayo womhlaba wonke i-Brent crude, inhlanganisela ekhiqizwa ezindaweni zase-North Sea futhi ehwebeka e-Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). I-Brent iyisilinganiso samaphesenti angaba ngu-60% kawoyela oluhwebeka emazweni ngamazwe emhlabeni jikelele, ngokwengxenye ngoba ithuthwa ngasolwandle futhi kulula ukuyifaka emikhunjini, kanti i-WTI iseduze nezwe kwaCushing futhi ngokomlando kubiza kakhulu ukuyithumela kwamanye amazwe. Lezi zinhlobo ezimbili ziyafana ngekhwalithi kodwa azifani ngokuphelele, ngakho zihwebeka ngamanani ahluke kancane. Umehluko phakathi kwazo, i-Brent-WTI spread, ivamise ukuba yintengo encane engeziwe kwa-Brent, futhi nayo iqashwe njengophawu lwezindleko zokuthutha nengcindezi yokuthengeka esifundeni.
Yini eshayela intengo
Uwoyela uyimakethe yomhlaba jikelele, futhi intengo yawo ibonisa ukuncintisana okuhlala khona phakathi kokuthi kungakanani okukhiqizwayo nokuthi umhlaba ufuna ukushisa isiphi isilinganiso. Amandla ambalwa abusa lokhu.
Izinqumo zokuhlinzeka ze-OPEC+. Amazwe angamalungu e-OPEC akhiqiza cishe amaphesenti angu-35% kawoyela womhlaba futhi enze cishe ingxenye yakho konke ukuhweba kukawoyela emhlabeni jikelele. Ndawonye nabakhiqizi abazihlanganisayo njengeRussia, iqembu elibanzi elibizwa nge-OPEC+ libeka izinjongo zokukhiqiza ezingaqinisa noma zixegise imakethe. Ngokomlando, amanani athambekele ekukhuphukeni uma leli qembu linciphisa ukukhiqiza futhi ehle uma likukhulisa. Amandla eqembu okhiqizo aseleyo, uwoyela okungenzeka afakwe emakethe ngokushesha, nawo uyisibonisi: amandla amaningi aseleyo aqinisekisa abahwebi ukuthi noma yikuphi ukuphazamiseka kungabhekwa, okuvame ukudambisa amanani.
Isidingo somhlaba wonke. Ukukhula komnotho kungumshayeli omkhulu kunazo zonke wokusetshenziswa. Uma imikhakha yomnotho ikhula, amafemu ayasebenza, izimpahla ziyathuthwa, nokuhamba ngezindiza kuyanda, konke lokhu kudinga uphethiloli. Ukuncipha komnotho noma ukuwohloka kwenza okuphambene nalokho. IChina, i-United States neIndiya zibaluleke ngokukhethekile, ngakho imininingwane yezokukhiqiza namabhalane okukhula avela kulaba bomnotho avame ukushukumisa ishadi.
Idola laseMelika. Uwoyela uthengiswa ngamadola emhlabeni wonke. Uma idola liqina, uwoyela olungahlanziwe luba nezindleko eziphakeme kubathengi abasebenzisa ezinye izimali, okungehlisa isidingo futhi kucindezele phansi intengo; idola elibuthaka livame ukwenza okuphambene nalokho. Yingakho uwoyela kwesinye isikhathi usabela ezindabeni zenzalo ngoba engahlobene nhlobo namabhaleli kawoyela.
Izitoko. Imibiko yamasonto onke yezitoko, njengaleyo evela ku-US Energy Information Administration, ibonisa ukuthi ukuhlinzeka kuyakhula noma kuyancipha. Ukukhuphuka okumangazayo ezitokweni kubonisa isidingo esibuthaka noma ukukhiqizwa ngokweqile futhi kuvame ukucindezela phansi amanani, kanti ukwehla okukhulu kungawaphakamisa.
Ezombangazwe womhlaba. Ngenxa yokuthi uwoyela omningi ukhiqizwa futhi uthunyelwa ngezindawo zezombusazwe ezisenkingeni, izehlakalo ezisongela ukuhlinzeka, ingxabano eMpumalanga ephakathi, ukugcwala kwezindlela ezibalulekile zokuthutha, ukuvinjelwa, noma izingxoxo eziphazamisekile, kungadala ukukhula okusheshayo entengweni ngenxa nje yokungaqiniseki. Lokhu kunyakaza kungasheshe kwenzeke futhi kubuye kubuyele emuva ngokushesha uma ingcindezi idamba.
Ukufunda ishadi kanjani
Ishadi le-TradingView elingenhla lidwebe intengo ye-WTI ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Sebenzisa izilawuli zesikhathi ukuze usondele ohlangothini lwamaminithi osukwini kuya emasontweni noma eminyakeni; izikhathi ezimfushane zibonisa umsindo nezihloko zezindaba, kanti ezide zembula umkhondo osekelayo. Umgqa ophakamayo yintengo ngebhaleli ngamadola aseMelika. Isilinganiso esiphezulu nesiphansi samasonto angu-52 sikunika isimo sokuqonda ukuthi izinga lamanje lididekile noma lithobekile ngokomlando. Ivolumu ekhulayo ehambisana nokunyakaza ibonisa ukuqiniseka emumva kwakho. Khumbula ukuthi amakusasa awoyela ahweba cishe ubusuku nemini, ngakho izikhala nezingxenye ezinamandla zivame ukuhambelana nezindaba eziqhutshwa ngaphandle kwamahora ajwayelekile. Ishadi lichaza okwenzekile; alibiki okuzokwenzeka. Ungaqhathanisa uwoyela nezinye izimpahla ezithengiswayo, izimali kanye nezinkomba kwikhasi le-zonke izimakethe.
Kungani uwoyela ubalulekile emnothweni obanzi
Uwoyela ongahlanziwe usondele esisekelweni sacishe zonke izinketho zokuhlinzeka. Ukhwezisa amaloli, imikhumbi kanye nezindiza ezihambisa izimpahla, futhi uyimpahla eyisisekelo yamaplastiki, amakhemikhali kanye nomanyolo. Uma uwoyela ukhuphuka, izindleko zokuthutha nokukhiqiza ziyakhuphuka, futhi lokho kukhuphuka kuvame ukungena entengweni yaphezu kwakho konke, okuyisizathu sokuthi amandla (energy) abe yingxenye enkulu yezilinganiso zenani eliphakeme lokuphila. Amabhange amakhulu abheka uwoyela ngokucophelela ngoba ukukhuphuka okuqhubekayo kungenza kube nzima imizamo yawo yokugcina amanani ezinzile. Kumindeni, isixhumanisi esibonakala kakhulu isteshi lokugcwalisa: izindleko zikaphethiloli nezokushisa zinyakaza ngokuvamile ndawonye noyela, nakuba izintela nezinzuzo zokuhlanza zenza lesi sixhumanisi singacaci kahle. Ngamafuphi, intengo yebhaleli elilodwa eCushing, Oklahoma ithinta ngokungabonakali izindleko zezitolo, amathikithi ezindiza kanye nezinqubomgomo zomnotho.
Imibuzo evame ukubuzwa
Uwoyela ongahlanziwe i-WTI uyini?
I-WTI, noma i-West Texas Intermediate, uhlobo lukawoyela olukhaphalisayo, olune-sulphur encane lwase-US olulethwa e-Cushing, Oklahoma. Yisilinganiso esiyinhloko sentengo kawoyela waseNyakatho Melika futhi ithengiswa ngebhaleli ngamadola aseMelika.
I-WTI ihlukile kanjani ku-Brent?
I-WTI ikhiqizwa e-United States futhi iyisilinganiso saseNyakatho Melika, kanti i-Brent iyinhlanganisela yase-North Sea esetshenziswa njengesilinganiso somhlaba wonke samaphesenti angu-60% kawoyela othengiswayo. I-Brent ilula ukuyithumela ngemikhumbi, ngakho lezi zinhlobo ezimbili zivamise ukuhweba ngamanani ahluke kancane, i-Brent ivamise ukuba nentengo encane engeziwe.
Yini eyenza amanani kawoyela akhuphuke futhi ehle?
Abashayeli abayinhloko ukulingana kokuhlinzeka nesidingo somhlaba wonke, izinqumo zokukhiqiza ze-OPEC+, amandla edola laseMelika, imininingwane yezitoko yamasonto onke, kanye nezehlakalo zezombangazwe ezisongela ukuhlinzeka. Ambalwa kulokhu avame ukudonsa ngamacala ahlukene ngesikhathi esisodwa.
Kungani uwoyela uthinta inani eliphakeme lokuphila?
Uwoyela ukhwezisa ukuthutha futhi uyimpahla eyisisekelo yezinto eziningi, ngakho amanani aphakeme kawoyela ongahlanziwe akhuphula izindleko kuwo wonke amaketango okuhlinzeka. Amandla (energy) ayingxenye ebalulekile yezilinganiso zenani eliphakeme lokuphila, yingakho amabhange amakhulu ebheka uwoyela ngokucophelela.
Idola laseMelika eliqinile lehlisa amanani kawoyela?
Ngokuvamile, yebo. Ngoba uwoyela uthengiswa ngamadola, idola eliqinile lenza uwoyela olungahlanziwe lubize kakhulu kubathengi abasebenzisa ezinye izimali, okungehlisa isidingo futhi kucindezele intengo. Idola elibuthaka livame ukwenza okuphambene nalokho.
Intengo ekulesi khasi ivelaphi?
Ishadi lisakaza intengo ephilayo yamakusasa e-WTI ngokusebenzisa i-TradingView, libuyekeza ngesikhathi sonke sokuhweba. Linikezwa ngenhloso yolwazi kuphela futhi akufanele libhekwe njengeseluleko sokuthenga noma ukudayisa.
Leli khasi lokwazisa kuphela futhi alilona iseluleko sotshalomali. Amanani ezimpahla ziyantengantenga futhi zingashintsha ngokusheshayo. Njalo yenza ucwaningo lwakho ngaphambi kokuthatha izinqumo zezezimali.