Inani Legesi Yemvelo Nesheshi

Igesi yemvelo: intengo ye-Henry Hub, yini eyishukumisayo kanye nendlela yokufunda ishadi

Igesi yemvelo ingamafutha ashisisa cishe ingxenye yemizi yaseMelika, ekhiqiza isabelo esikhulu sikagesi wezwe futhi ondla ibhizinisi elikhula ngokushesha lokuthumela igesi eguqulwe yaba amanzi (LNG) emhlabeni jikelele. Kuwo wonke amakhomodithi ongawadweba, kungenzeka ukuthi yiyona enokushintsha okukhulu kunazo zonke: umoya obandayo, umbiko wokugcinwa kwezitoko, noma isiteshi esisodwa sokuthumela ngaphandle esivalekayo kungashintsha intengo ngamaphesenti amaningi ezinsukwini ezimbalwa. Leli khasi likunika ishadi eliphilayo elisebenzisanayo legesi yemvelo kanye nesifinyezo sokuhlaziya kobuchwepheshe, ukuze ulandelele imakethe uqonde ukuthi yini esemva kokunyakaza ngakunye. Lakhelwe ukufunda nokufunda, hhayi ukubeka izinhweba.

E-United States isilinganiso esisetshenziswayo yi-Henry Hub, indawo yokuxhumana kwamapayipi ngokoqobo e-Erath, e-Louisiana, lapho amapayipi amaningi amakhulu we-interstate ne-intrastate ehlangana khona. Ngoba igesi eningi ishintshana khona ngokoqobo, i-Henry Hub yaba yindawo yokulethwa yekhonteraka lamakusasa legesi yemvelo e-NYMEX (uphawu lokuhwebeka NG), lelo nalelo lihlanganisa cishe amaBritish thermal units angu-10,000 kwezigidigidi (MMBtu). Uma ubona intengo yegesi yaseMelika ibalwa ngamadola nge-MMBtu, cishe njalo iba yi-Henry Hub. I-Europe ne-Asia zinesilinganiso sazo, njenge-Dutch TTF, kodwa i-Henry Hub yinombolo esekela ukuhweba kweNyakatho Melika.

Yini ngempela eshayela intengo

Isimo sezulu ngumshayeli oyinhloko. Cishe amaphesenti angu-48% emizi yaseMelika ashisisa ngegesi yemvelo, ngakho ubusika obubandayo bukhulisa isidingo ngamandla, kanti izikhathi zehlobo ezishisayo zicindezela izimboni zikagesi ezisebenzisa igesi ukusebenza ngamandla kakhulu ukuze zisebenzise ama-air conditioning. Umoya oyedwa obandayo ongajwayelekile (polar vortex) ungakhupha amanani ngamaphesenti angu-30 kuya ku-50% ngezinsuku njengoba izinkampani zikagesi ziwina ukuthola ukuhlinzeka futhi izitoko ziphela ngokushesha kunalokho okwakulindelekile. Izikhathi ezithambile zasentwasahlobo nasekwindla zenza okuphambene nalokho, zishiya imakethe ihlinzekwe kahle futhi amanani ethambile.

Izitoko ziyisilinganiso samasonto onke. Igesi ifakwa ekugcinweni ngaphansi komhlaba ngesikhathi sehlobo lapho isidingo siphansi futhi ikhishwe ngesikhathi sobusika. Njalo ngoLwesine i-U.S. Energy Information Administration ishicilela amazinga ezitoko, futhi imakethe isabela ngokushesha ngokuqhathanisa lezi zibalo nesilinganiso seminyaka emihlanu edlule. Izitoko eziphezulu kunesilinganiso ngokuvamile zisho amanani aphansi; amazinga alingana noma aphansi kwesilinganiso abonisa imakethe eqinile futhi aphakamise amanani. Lo mbiko owodwa uvamise ukuba isishukumisi esikhulu kunazo zonke sesonto ngamunye.

Ukukhiqiza kubeka isicabha esiphansi. Ukuhlinzeka okuningi kwaseMelika manje kuvela ku-shale, kubuswa yi-Marcellus ne-Utica e-Appalachia kanye ne-Haynesville e-Louisiana naseTexas. Izinombolo ze-rig kanye nomsebenzi wokumba kulezi zindawo ziyizibonisi eziholayo: uma abakhiqizi bengeza ama-rig, ukuhlinzeka okwengeziwe kuyeza; uma bebuyela emuva, imakethe iyaqina. Ukuvalwa kwamapayipi kanye ne-freeze-off, lapho izikhungo zomsebenzi ziqhwa ngokoqobo ekubandeni okwedlulele, kungehlisa umkhiqizo ngokushesha.

Ukuthumela kwe-LNG kuxhuma i-U.S. nomhlaba. Selokhu isiteshi sase-Sabine Pass savulwa ngo-2016, i-U.S. isibe umthumeli omkhulu wegesi yemvelo eguqulwe yaba amanzi, ngamavolumu manje elingana isabelo esibalulekile sokukhiqizwa ezweni. Uma amanani egesi eEurope noma eAsia ekhuphuka, igesi eningi yaseMelika iguqulwa iyokwamuka ithunyelwe ngaphandle, okuqinisa ukuhlinzeka esizweni futhi kukhuphule i-Henry Hub. Le sisekelo esikhula sokuthumela ngaphandle sifake isicabha esiqinile ngaphansi kwamanani aseMelika kunalokho okwakukhona eminyakeni embalwa edlule, futhi kuxhuma igesi yaseMelika nezehlakalo ezikude njengomoya obandayo eAsia noma isabiso sokuhlinzeka eEurope. Ubuhlakani obufanayo buxhuma igesi ku-woyela ongahlanziwe, njengoba lokhu kubili kuncintisana futhi kuhweba ndawonye emakethe zamandla emhlabeni jikelele.

Ukushintshana kukagesi kulingana uhlangothi lwesidingo. Izinkampani zikagesi zikhetha phakathi kwamalahle negesi ukukhiqiza ugesi ngokuvamile ngokwentengo. Uma igesi ishibhile, abakhiqizi bashintsha kumalahle baye kugesi, okwengeza isidingo futhi kunciphise ukwehla. Uma igesi iba nezindleko eziphakeme, ukugeleza kuyaguqulwa futhi amalahle abuyisele isabelo semakethe. Lokhu kushintshana kwamalahle-kuya-kugesi kusebenza njengesihlobiso semihubhe eliqondile kuwo womabili amagatsha entengo.

Kungani igesi yemvelo iyingozi kanye nefuze inkathi

Izinto ezimbili zenza igesi ibe ngenkinga ngendlela ehlukile. Okokuqala, kunzima futhi kubiza ukuyigcina uma iqhathaniswa nowoyela, ngakho ukuhlinzeka akulula ukuguqulwa ukuze kuhlangabezane nokukhuphuka kwesidingo okusheshayo. Okwesibili, isidingo sinamathele ngokuqinile esimweni sezulu, esingaqondakali. Hlanganisa lokhu futhi uthole imakethe engaba ithule izinyanga eziningi, bese iqhume. Amanani ngokuvamile aphansi futhi azolile ehlobo, uma isikhathi sokufaka izitoko sisebenza, futhi aphakeme kakhulu futhi anguzuzu kakhulu ebusika, uma ukubikezelwa kokubanda kungabangela ukukhishwa kwezitoko ngamandla amakhulu. Ekuqaleni kuka-2026, ngokwesibonelo, umoya obandayo kanye nokukhishwa okukhulu kwezitoko kwaphakamisa amanani aya ku-$7/MMBtu ngaphambi kokuba abuyele phansi. Lolu kuguquguquka kwenkathi, izehlobo ezizolile nobusika obunesiphepho, yisici esichaza ishadi legesi.

Ukufunda ishadi legesi yemvelo kanjani

Ishadi elingenhla lidwebe intengo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ngokuvamile njengama-candlestick. I-candle ngayinye ibonisa ukuvula, ukuvala, amazinga aphakeme naphansi esikhathini sayo; umzimba uwuhla lokuvula-kuya-kokuvala kanti izicu ezincane zimaka amazinga aphelele. Uchungechunge lwamazinga aphakeme kunaphambili nawo aphansi kunaphambili lubonisa umkhondo ukhuphuka, okuphambene nalokho kubonisa ukwehla, kanti ukunyakaza okucwathayo kusho ukuthi imakethe ayikaqondi. I-moving average inciphisa umsindo ube umugqa owodwa, kanti amazinga e-support and resistance amaka amanani lapho abathengi noma abadayisi bengene khona ngokuphindaphindiwe. Shintsha izikhathi ukuze kuhambisane nombuzo wakho: ukubuka usuku olulodwa kuthwebula ukusabela embikweni wezitoko, kanti ukubuka iminyaka eminingana kuveza iphethini yenkathi ngokusobala. Khumbula ukuthi izinkomba zichaza lokho osekwenzekile hhayi ukubikezela okuzayo. Ukuze uthole isithombe esibanzi, qhathanisa igesi nezinye izilinganiso zamandla nezinsimbi kwikhasi lethu le-zonke izimakethe.

Ulwazi kuphela. Akukho lutho kulesi khasi olulingana neseluleko sotshalomali, futhi imininingwane yemakethe ingabambezeleka noma ingaphelele. Yenza ucwaningo lwakho ngaphambi kokuthatha noma yisiphi isinqumo sezezimali.

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