I-USD/CNY Isheshi Eliphilayo Nokuhlaziywa

I-USD/CNY: idola lilinganiswe ngeyuan yaseChina elawulwayo

I-USD/CNY ikutshela ukuthi kudingeka ama-yuan amangaki aseChina (i-renminbi) ukuze uthenge idola elilodwa lase-US. Lapho umbhangqwana ukhuphuka, idola liyazuza kanti i-yuan iyabuthaka; lapho iwa, i-yuan iyaqina maqondana nedola. Ngoba i-yuan ingenye yezinhlobo zemali eziyinhloko ezilawulwa kakhulu emhlabeni, i-USD/CNY ifundwa hhayi kuphela njengentengo yemakethe kodwa nanjengesilinganiso senhloso yenqubomgomo eBeijing.

Umkhuba wenani ulula: i-USD/CNY engu-7.20 isho ukuthi idola elilodwa lase-US lilingana ne-yuan engu-7.20. "I-Renminbi" (RMB) yigama elisemthethweni lohlobo lwemali; "i-yuan" iyunithi oyibalayo. Umbhangqwana uhlala phakathi nendawo yezindlela zohwebo lomhlaba jikelele ngoba iChina ingumthengisi omkhulu kunazo zonke wempahla futhi iyixhumo eliyisisekelo emiketeni eminingi yokuhlinzeka, ngakho ngisho nokunyakaza okuncane kudlulisa emabhalansini ezimpahla eziyisisekelo, izinhlobo zemali zemakethe esakhulayo kanye nemabhalansi wamafemu amaningi.

Uhlobo lwemali olulawulwayo: izinga lansuku zonke kanye nebhande lohwebo

Iqiniso elibaluleke kakhulu mayelana ne-USD/CNY ukuthi aluyona indlela ekhululekile yokuntengantenga. IChina isebenzisa uhlelo lwezinga lohwebo olulawulwayo eliphakathi kwe-People's Bank of China (PBoC). Ekuseni ngayinye yohwebo, i-PBoC ishicilela izinga lomgomo eliphakathi, noma "iphuzu eliphakathi" (elibizwa nangokuthi i-fixing), ledola maqondana ne-yuan yasekhaya. Izinga lasekhaya lohwebo lisuke livunyelwe ukuhwebisana kuphela ngaphakathi kwebhande elimisiwe eduze kwaleli phuzu eliphakathi, njengamanje kuyi-plus noma minus amaphesenti amabili.

Leli phuzu lakhelwe okuningana, kufaka ukuvala kwansuku ezidlule, ukunyakaza kwasebusuku kwedola nezinye izinhlobo zemali eziyinhloko, kanye nokucatshangwa okubanzi kwasekhaya njengokugeleza kwezimali nokukhula. Amakethe abheka ngeso lokhozi ngoba lithathwa njengophawu: iphuzu eliphakathi eliqinile kunokulindelekile lisikisela ukuthi i-PBoC iyavimbela ukwehla kwe-yuan, kuyilapho iphuzu elibuthaka lingakhomba ukubekezelela uhlobo lwemali olubuthaka, ngokuvamile lapho idola libanzi liqinile. Kusukela ngo-2023, ibhange elimele livame ukumisa amaphuzu aqinile kunalokho okusikiselwe ukuze linciphise ubuthaka be-yuan, kuyilapho izinga lasekhaya lohwebo ngezinye izikhathi lihweba eduze kohlangothi olubuthaka lebhande layo.

I-CNY yasekhaya maqondana ne-CNH engaphandle

I-yuan ihweba emakethe ezimbili ezihlobene. I-CNY iyi-yuan yasekhaya, ihweba ngaphakathi kwelizwe laseChina futhi ibhekene nebhande lansuku zonke nokulawulwa kwemali. I-CNH iyi-yuan engaphandle, ehweba ngokukhululekile ezindaweni ezinjenge-Hong Kong, iLondon neSingapore, lapho intengo yayo imiswa amandla emakethe ngaphandle kwebhande. Zombili zabelana ngenani lobuso obungu-1:1, kodwa izinga le-CNH engaphandle lingashenxa kancane phezulu noma phansi kwe-CNY yasekhaya kuye ngobunengi kanye nokugeleza komhlaba jikelele. Osomabhizinisi bavame ukubheka isikhala se-CNY-CNH njengesilinganiso sengcindezi: i-CNH ebuthaka ngokuphawulekayo ingakhomba ukuthi amakethe angaphandle alindele ukwehla kwe-yuan okwengeziwe kunalokho izinga lasekhaya elilawulwayo elivumela lona njengamanje.

Yini eqhuba i-USD/CNY

Amandla amaningana adudula umbhangqwana ngaphakathi neduze kwebhande:

• Inqubomgomo ye-PBoC. Izinga lansuku zonke, ububanzi bebhande, ukungenelela kwamabhange kahulumeni ngezinye izikhathi, kanye namathuluzi athinta ukungenambizo kwasekhaya konke kwakha isiqondiso. Lokhu yikho okuqhuba kakhulu kunazo zonke.
• Isikhala samazinga phakathi kwe-US neChina. Lapho izinzuzo zase-US (isibonelo i-10-year Treasury) zisezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu kunezinzuzo zamabhondi kahulumeni waseChina afanayo, izimali zivame ukuthanda izimpahla zedola, kucindezela i-yuan ibuthaka. Isikhala esincipha sivame ukusekela i-yuan.
• Uhwebo kanye nekhawunti yamanje. Imali engenayo yeChina yokuthumela ngaphandle kanye nokweqile kwekhawunti yamanje kukhiqiza ukugeleza kwedola okungasekela i-yuan, nakuba ukweqile kuye kwaguquguquka esikhathini.
• Ukukhula nomuzwa. Amandla okukhula kwasekhaya, ingcindezi yomkhakha wezakhiwo, amathemba wokuvuselelwa komnotho kanye nesifiso sobungozi kumakethe akhulayo konke kungena kulokho.
• Idola elibanzi. Lapho idola lase-US liqina maqondana nakho konke (i-DXY index), i-USD/CNY ngokuvamile iyakhuphuka nayo.

Indlela yokufunda ishadi

Ishadi eliphila elingenhla lidweba i-USD/CNY ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Shintsha izikhathi ukuze uhlukanise umsindo nomkhuba: imibono yosuku neyosuku lunye ithatha ukuphendula ezinga lokuseni kanye nedatha yase-US, kuyilapho imibono yeviki nenyanga ikhombisa ukushenxa okuncane okuqhutshwa isikhala samazinga kanye nebhalansi yohwebo. Ngoba izinga lasekhaya lisebhandeni, uvamise ukubona izikhala ezizolile kunemibhangqwana ekhululekile ukungenantenga, ephazanyiswa ukunyakaza okubukhali lapho inqubomgomo ishintsha noma idola linyakaza. Osomabhizinisi abaningi bafaka phezu kwe-CNH engaphandle noma inkomba yedola ebanzi ukuze babeke ukunyakaza ngakunye emongweni. Qhathanisa nayo nezinye izimbangqwana ku-zonke izimakethe, noma wenze ukuguqula okusheshayo ngesishintshi sethu sohlobo lwemali isishintshi sohlobo lwemali ukuze ubone umbhangqwana ophilayo ngezinga lanamuhla.

Lesi sihloko sinolwazi futhi akusona iseluleko sokutshala imali. Amakethe ohlobo lwemali athwala ubungozi, futhi uhlobo lwemali olulawulwayo lungahamba ngokushesha lapho amathemba enqubomgomo eshintsha.

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