Amanani kashukela: yini eshukumisa impahla emnandi kunazo zonke emhlabeni
Ushukela ungenye yezimpahla ezithambile ezihwebeka ngamandla kunazo zonke emhlabeni, futhi ukunyakaza kwentengo yakhe kuthinta wonke umuntu kusukela kubalimi bomoba eBrazil kuya ezinkampanini ezikhiqiza ukudla nabahwebi bamandla. Ishadi eliphilayo ngenhla lilandelela isilinganiso somhlaba jikelele ngesikhathi sangempela, kanti ukuhlaziya okulandelayo kuchaza amandla asemumva kokunyakaza ngakunye ukuze ukwazi ukulifunda unesizinda esiqondile hhayi ukuqagela nje.
Imakethe yamakusasa kashukela
Isilinganiso somhlaba sentengo yoshukela ongahlanziwe ikhonteraka le-Sugar No. 11, elihweba e-Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Ikhonteraka ngalinye limele amaphondo angu-112,000, noma cishe ama-metric ton angu-50.8, oshukela womoba oyisisekelo (raw centrifugal cane sugar) olethwe echwebeni. Ngoba iyisilinganiso soshukela womoba ngokoqobo, i-Sugar No. 11 yiyo amashadi amaningi, izihloko zezindaba kanye nabahlaziyi abakusho uma bekhuluma "intengo kashukela." Ikhonteraka elihlukene loshukela omhlophe olihwetshelwa eLondon lihlanganisa ushukela ohlanziwe, futhi umehluko phakathi kongahlanziwe nomhlophe ubonisa izinzuzo zokuhlanza.
Amanani athengiswa ngamasenti aseMelika ngephawundi. Amakusasa avumela abakhiqizi ukuvala amanani okuthengisa futhi abathengi bavikeleke ezindlekweni zabo, kodwa amakhonteraka afanayo adonsa abazama ukubhekana kanye nezikhwama zezimali, ngakho ukunyakaza kwansuku zonke kuxuba ukuhlinzeka nesidingo ngempela nokubekwa kwesimo kanye nomoya wemakethe.
Abashayeli abayinhloko
Umkhiqizo waseBrazil naseNdiya. Amazwe amabili abusa indaba yokuhlinzeka. IBrazil iyona nkulu kunazo zonke ethumela ngaphandle, ihlanganisa cishe ingxenye yokuthumela komhlaba kwesizini yamuva nje, ilandelwa i-Thailand ne-Ndiya. Ngoba iBrazil ibeka isivinini sokuthumela komhlaba, ngisho nezinguquko ezincane esivunweni sayo se-center-south ziphethuka emanani yonke indawo. I-Ndiya iyomkhiqizi omkhulu kanye nomthumeli oshintshanayo osebe umkhiqizo kanye nezabelo zokuthumela zingaqinisa noma zigcwalise imakethe ngokushesha.
Isimo sezulu. Umoba kanye ne-beet zizitshalo ezizwakala isimo sezulu. Isomiso, ukubanda noma imvula eyeqile kungehlisa isivuno noma kucacise (dilute) ingqikithi kashukela wombuku womoba. E-Ndiya, imvula enkulu ye-monsoon kwesinye isikhathi yehlise ukutholakala kukashukela (recovery) futhi kwanciphisa izibikezelo zomkhiqizo, kanti izikhathi zokoma ebhandeni lomoba laseBrazil zivamise ukwethusa imakethe.
Uxhumano lwe-ethanol. Lokhu yisici esenza ushukela ube ngokungajwayelekile. Amafemu okuhlanza aseBrazil angaqondisa umoba ofanayo aye kushukela noma kumafutha e-ethanol, eshintsha ingxube ngokusekelwe kokunenzuzo kakhulu. Uma amanani owoyela ongahlanziwe noma amafutha ephakeme, i-ethanol iba yindlela engcono kakhulu futhi amafemu aphindisela umoba kude noshukela, aqinise ukuhlinzeka futhi asekele amanani. Inqubomgomo iyaqinisa lokhu: uma iBrazil yakhulisa isilinganiso esiyisibopho se-ethanol ophethiloli, isidingo se-ethanol sasekhaya sakhuphuka futhi sadonsa umoba omningi uye kumafutha. Ngenxa yalokho, amanani amandla nawoshukela axhumene ngendlela emangaza abaqalayo.
I-real yaseBrazil. Ngoba iBrazil ithumela ushukela oningi kangaka kodwa amanani abekwa ngamadola aseMelika, izinga leshintsho le-real libaluleke kakhulu. I-real ebuthaka yenza ushukela waseBrazil ushibhe kubathengi bomhlaba futhi ikhuthaza amafemu okuhlanza ukuthumela nokuthengisa, okuvamise ukucindezela intengo yamadola. I-real eqinile yenza okuphambene nalokho.
Izinqubomgomo zokuthumela ngaphandle. Ushukela ubekwa kakhulu isenzo sikahulumeni. Amazwe amaningi akhiqizayo axhasa amafemu awo okuhlanza, abeke izabelo zokuthumela, noma afake izintela ukuvikela ukuhlinzeka kwasekhaya. Izinqumo ze-Ndiya mayelana nokuvunyelwa kokuthumela ngaphandle, kanye nemithetho ye-Brazil yentela nokuhlanganisa, kungashintsha imakethe njengesimo sezulu. Ukuze uthole ezinye izimpahla ezithambile ezihlobene, bheka ikhofi kanye nohlu oluphelele lwezinto ezilandelelwa kwikhasi le-zonke izimakethe.
Inkathi
Ushukela unesigqi senkathi esibonakalayo esihlobene nemijikelezo yesivuno. Isivuno somoba se-center-south saseBrazil ngokuvamile siqala ngo-Ephreli noMeyi, futhi igagasi lokuhlinzeka okusha elilandelayo livame ukucindezela amanani ngesikhathi sesizini yokugaya (crushing season). Amanani angaqina futhi ngaphambi kwezikhathi zesivuno esikhulu noma uma isikhala phakathi kwezivuno sicindezela ukutholakala. Lawa maphethini ayithambekelo, hhayi isiqinisekiso: unyaka wesimo sezulu esibi, ukushintsha kwengxube yoshukela-ne-ethanol, noma inguquko yenqubomgomo yokuthumela engazumayo kungehlula ikhalenda ejwayelekile ngokuphelele.
Ukufunda ishadi kanjani
Qala ngesikhathi. Ukubuka isonto noma inyanga kubonisa umjikelezo wokuhlinzeka weminyaka eminingi futhi kungcono ukuqonda ukuthi intengo imi kuphi uma iqhathaniswa nokweqisa nokushoda kwangaphambili; ukubuka usuku noma isikhashana kuthwebula ukusabela ezindabeni. Bheka amazinga acacile e-support and resistance lapho intengo iphindaphinde iphenduke khona, futhi qaphela ivolumu ukulinganisela ukuqiniseka okusemumva kokunyakaza. Ngoba ushukela uhweba ngamakusasa aqhubekayo, qaphela ukuthi ukushintshwa kwamakhonteraka (rollover) kungadala izikhala ezincane. Phezu kwakho konke, hlanganisa ishadi nabashayeli abangenhla: ukugqashuka kubonakala kungcono ngokwazi ukuthi ingabe uwoyela ongahlanziwe uyakhuphuka, i-real iyawa, noma isibikezelo esisha sesivuno saseBrazil sisanda kufika.
Lesi sihloko sokwazisa kuphela futhi asilona iseluleko sotshalomali. Amakusasa ezimpahla ayantengantenga futhi angaholela ekulahlekelweni okukhulu. Njalo yenza ucwaningo lwakho futhi ucabangele ukubonisana nesazi sezezimali esinelayisensi ngaphambi kokuhweba.
Imibuzo evame ukubuzwa
Isilinganiso sentengo kashukela siyini?
Isilinganiso somhlaba soshukela ongahlanziwe ikhonteraka lamakusasa i-Sugar No. 11 elihweba e-ICE, elithengiswa ngamasenti aseMelika ngephawundi. Ikhonteraka elihlukene loshukela omhlophe eLondon lihlanganisa ushukela ohlanziwe.
Kungani ushukela uxhumene namanani owoyela?
Amafemu okuhlanza aseBrazil angaguqula umoba ofanayo abe ushukela noma amafutha e-ethanol. Uma amanani owoyela nophethiloli ephakeme, i-ethanol iba nenzuzo enkulu, ngakho amafemu akhiqiza ushukela omncane futhi amanani avamise ukukhuphuka.
Yiziphi izwe ezibaluleke kakhulu emananini kashukela?
IBrazil ingumthumeli omkhulu kunazo zonke ngamaphesenti angu-50 wokuthumela komhlaba, ilandelwa i-Thailand ne-Ndiya. IBrazil ne-Ndiya ndawonye ziqhuba indaba yokuhlinzeka komhlaba jikelele.
I-real yaseBrazil ithinta kanjani ushukela?
Ushukela uthengiswa ngamadola aseMelika kodwa iBrazil ingumthumeli oyinhloko. I-real ebuthaka yenza ushukela waseBrazil ushibhe emazweni angaphandle futhi ikhuthaza ukuthengisa, okuvamise ukucindezela intengo yamadola; i-real eqinile iyasekela.
Ingabe kukhona isizini engcono yokubheka ushukela?
Isivuno se-center-south saseBrazil siqala ngo-Ephreli noMeyi, ngokuvamile sengeza ukuhlinzeka futhi kucindezele amanani ngesikhathi sesizini yokugaya. Lezi zithambekelo zenkathi zingehlulwa isimo sezulu, ushintsho lwe-ethanol noma izinguquko zenqubomgomo.
Ngingawathemba yini amaphethini enkathi ukuhweba ushukela?
Inkathi ichaza izithambekelo zangaphambilini, hhayi izinto eziqinisekile. Ushukumo lwesimo sezulu, izinyathelo zenqubomgomo yokuthumela kanye nengxube yoshukela-ne-ethanol konke kungehlula ikhalenda ejwayelekile, ngakho phatha inkathi njengesizinda hhayi njengophawu.